Although there is a broad consensus across the energy community about the necessity of a transition away from fossil fuels, experts disagree about the rapidity of this transition given the technological constraints and the level of inertia in the system.
意见也分裂了相对低碳化石燃料的作用 - 主要是天然气和LNG - 将不得不在过渡中发挥作用。数十亿美元的燃气和液化天然气基础设施的投资决策今天正在制定天然气将继续满足全球能源消耗的大量份额。
These investment decisions conflict with recommendations made by climate scientists and bodies such as the IPCC, who have pointed out that even the emissions generated by the existing fossil fuel infrastructure will exhaust the carbon budget consistent with 1.5 degrees of warming by the year 2100.
剩余碳预算的局限性意味着迫切需要考虑加速的能源转型可能看起来像什么。是否为它准备了化石燃料公司？能源系统的转型对政治领域的转变以及它需要什么样的效果？
One expert who has spent a great deal of time considering these questions isProfessor Paul Stevens, a Distinguished Fellow at Chatham House’s department for Energy, Environment and Resources.
At the upcomingLNG全球大会在伦敦，史蒂文斯教授将对能源转型的地缘政治提供主题演讲及其对液化天然气工业的影响。
We asked his thoughts on a range of topics – including the longevity of LNG demand growth, the obstacles for fossil fuel companies seeking to diversify into renewables, and the geopolitical consequences of a world predominantly reliant on renewable electricity.
他的回答将有趣的阅读任何担心天然气和液化天然气的未来作用的任何人，以及阶段淘汰化石燃料的更广泛后果。
Want more articles like this? Sign up to the KNect365 Energy newsletter>>
Q: How soon do you expect demand for oil to plateau, and how long before gas follows?
保罗史蒂文斯教授：Oil demand in the OECD already peaked around 2005. As for the rest, it’s very difficult to predict. My first law of forecasting is to provide a number or a date, but never both at the same time – otherwise it can come back to bite you.
我怀疑整体峰值将在2030年之前来。但也许更紧迫的问题是巅峰之后会发生什么？是否会有一个温柔的平台和缓慢下降，或者会有悬崖边缘吗？
我相信这是石油和天然气之间的差异的地方，因为由于各种原因，天气可能会达到油后峰。就石油接下来发生的事情而言，我的感觉是悬崖边缘 - 需求将非常迅速下降。
然而，不是那种天然气。我认为需求将会更慢地下降，如果只是因为气体和可再生能源之间的联系，由于间歇性。
问：LNG是否与天然气需求同时将高原同时？
Prof. Stevens:No, definitely not. Gas is increasingly being used in places which don’t have domestic gas supplies. This means that they’ve got to acquire it, which entails transportation. Your options in that case are either pipelines or LNG, and many of the regions that could have access to pipeline gas already do have access to pipeline gas. For this reason I think that the LNG plateau is going to come significantly after the plateau for gas demand. LNG will be the last man standing.
问：现在，将在这一时期将继续增长的天然气需求继续增长，偿还几十年的液化天然气投资决策。您是否认为这些投资基于错误的信息？
Prof. Stevens:The energy establishment is in denial over the speed of the transition. I think the reason for that is simply because there are so many vested interests involved, and the vested interests are blinding the industry to what is going on.
The point is that it is going to be a two-stage process. The first stage will take place during the transition, and it will be very, very disruptive.
And then after the transition you come to the second stage. This will be where the demand is likely to start falling, and we’ve already talked about that. I wouldn’t say that investors are acting on faulty information. I think it’s ostrich like; they’re sticking their heads in the sand.
显然，项目支持者的后果将是非常重要的，从此感觉到，如果能源转换比预期更快，那么LNG的需求将比他们期望的需求下降。但是说过，我认为我的预测液化天然气将成为最后一个人的身体。
Q: Advocates of LNG argue that it will primarily be competing against dirtier fossil fuels. How true is this, and at what levels of renewable penetration does LNG become a hindrance rather than an asset?
Prof. Stevens:毫无疑问，LNG将与脏燃料竞争，并将赢得，这是真的。但我会把两个想法放在那里。
首先，有逃亡甲烷排放问题 - 这是一个大的交易。这是一个很大的优势，因为我们并不真正知道它是多少问题。从一个来源或另一个来看，已经进行了各种估计，但如果数字开始看起来很糟糕，它可能会突然回来并咬这个行业。
当然，另一种可能性，我一直在谈论这一点，是如果有一个主要的液化天然气事故。如果液化天然气油轮遭到破坏，就会有一个正在进行的辩论。每个人都同意的是，当液化天然气出现海洋时，它冻结，然后物理收购法律和LNG开始重新分配。
But here there is a difference of opinion. The majority opinion says that if there’s ignition, the LNG will start to burn off in little explosions. But there is another school of thought, which is a minority view. According to this view, if the weather conditions are just right, and there is regasification without any initial ignition, with the right gas and air mix, the LNG will go up at once. You’re looking at the equivalent of a nuclear explosion.
这是一个少数人的观点，但我不想待在了解哪些思想派对是正确的。这是值得指出的，也是在1975年之前，科学共识是你永远无法获得大型气体/空气爆炸 - 它的身体不可能。
But a small village called Fixborough in Leicestershire proved them wrong when it was blown off the map by a large gas/air explosion. Now this is extreme stuff of course, but of course if there was an accident like that it could do for LNG what Chernobyl did for nuclear. It’s something to think about.
Q: What are the consequences of the energy transition for gas and LNG companies whose core businesses are based in the countries that will transition the most rapidly – Europe, the US, etc?
Prof. Stevens:显然，他们将不得不从天然气和LNG转发，并且如果我对过渡的速度是正确的，那就比他们想到的速度更快。但这里的问题是他们可以多样化的？
一个我非常感兴趣的话题是the issue of economic rent in energy markets. If you look at the oil market, there is a fairly large amount of economic rent. The whole history of the industry has been about the ability of companies to capture that rent, which is why they became major international companies.
通过解释，经济租金来自两个来源。首先是当您访问低成本的供应时，您可以获得经济学家呼叫生产者盈余的东西。第二是如果市场被操纵为推动价格，而且你得到了一些经济学家称之为超正式利润。
现在，如果你看石油，有很多经济租金来自生产者盈余，超前的利润很多。
在天然气中，有一些生产者剩余，因为有一些低成本的气体。但超正式利润没有经济租金，因为没有一个固定市场。天然气非常有竞争力，因为您没有与OPEC相当的天然气出口国组织。
通过可再生能源，没有明显的多样化来源，没有经济租金 - 这对专业有点问题。
问：当可再生能源变得更加普遍，能源贸易的地缘政治影响变得越来越多？或者是否有地中政治的影响更依赖电力？
Prof. Stevens:A lot of the geopolitical implications of energy come because of energy trade – because some people have it and some people don’t. You get all sorts of conflict as a result.
As we progress through the energy transition to the sunny uplands beyond, that element of geopolitics is going to disappear. Not that there aren’t some geopolitical aspects to renewable energy – obviously there are some issues over certain key minerals. Not lithium; I think the lithium thing is grossly overstated. But cobalt presents a potential problem.
That said, I’m a great believer that technology is going to come to the rescue and solve the problem of mineral scarcity. I think where there is a serious threat is through cyberattacks, which are obviously a major factor.
但再次，我会讨论可再生能源的地缘政治缺点较少。我最近的报告的原始工作标题，未来石油需求的地缘政治影响，曾是能源转变与胡萝卜的地缘政治.
Chatham House wouldn’t let me have that title – they thought it was too flippant. But actually I think it’s quite pithy, because whenever I’ve used it in presentations it’s made people sit up and listen.
重点是，没有与胡萝卜相关的地缘主义，因为每个人都可以使用它们，每个人都可以产生它们 - 所以你没有得到那些问题。
As to the point about cyberattacks, one of the advantages of renewables is that potentially they are highly decentralised, so you don’t have large vulnerable systems. Okay, your neighbour might cyberattack your solar panels from next door. But you’re not going to get disruption on the level that you could by taking out a complete power network.
Q: I suppose that depends on how the power grid evolves, though. If you have a decentralised power grid that may be true, but if you’ve got a grid that is dependent on a lot more high-voltage transmission, then it may not be the case.
A:I agree, that is certainly a factor. And of course if you start to get international trade in electricity on a significant scale, that could be a problem. I’ve done a lot of work in my career on oil and gas transit pipelines, and they are extremely vulnerable, as we know. Now if you have the same sort of problem with the transmission networks then again geopolitics creeps back in.
问：如果有一条消息，液化天然气行业可能会在LNGGC中脱离你的演讲，它会是什么？
A:我认为我希望他们带走的一条消息 - 而且我会在我的演讲中推动它 - 这是直线预测的日子如何有效地结束。比以往任何时候都更多地，人们需要考虑不连续性和黑色天鹅事件，因为这些都将变得更加普遍。
无论如何，我一直都反对直线预测，因为根据定义，您将最终成为不连续性。但是，根据定义，如果是不连续性，预测是非常困难的。不是不可能的，但更困难。当然，国际能源机构和其他人产生的直线预测不再有意义。
This transcript has been edited for brevity and clarity.
