Eddie Tofpik是ADM Investor Services International的技术分析主管。他对外汇和大宗商品期货市场的分析可以在网上免费获得，对包括糖和乙醇在内的各种行业的市场参与者来说是一个宝贵的资源。
我们在机场赶上了他世界乙醇和生物燃料进一步了解货币变动及其对农产品贸易影响的会议。
“I think if you look at it over the EU specifically, you have a long-term downward trend in the Euro… that weakening of the Euro is obviously going to benefit producers in the European market space.”
Q： 你是如何帮助改进糖业和乙醇业的决策的？
Eddie Tofpik:I’m a technical analyst, so I provide an additional, parallel service to those who follow the market fundamentals. I’m looking at markets from a charting point of view, analysing them, and providing that analysis for free not only to ADM but also to external customers of ADM and ADM ISI to add to their decision making. This is very welcome in parts of the fund industry, compared to say the traditional industries.
Q: What currency trends have had the most impact on the trade in agricultural commodities over the past twelve months?
Tofpik:嗯，其实有两个词——英国脱欧和中国。而这些都以非同寻常的方式影响了市场。因为我们看到，在那些时期之外，市场缺乏流动性，我们看到波动性收窄，波动幅度收窄。突然变得非常，非常安静，然后…砰！因为这样的事情，市场朝着一个或另一个方向移动。
Now the idea of technical analysis is to try and anticipate where those things could happen, and to what extent. And the winners and losers? It’s very difficult because you’ve had a situation where some of the currency movements have actually helped emerging market currencies such as the Brazilian real, the Indian rupee for example, but they’ve not really fully benefitted from it.
Q: How have fluctuations in the value of the dollar affected the volume of US agricultural exports?
Tofpik:由于中国的情况，美国农产品出口受到严重影响。现在也有了这种转船的想法，一些来自美国的货物被转船到拉丁美洲，然后以这种方式运到中国。
You’ve seen some activity in the currency movements because of that, specifically in the Brazilian real (and to a certain degree the Argentine peso, but that’s a specific situation on its own). The situation that’s really, really moved those is lack of volatility suddenly followed by a big movement.
Most of those currencies have actually been seen gaining recently, and that has gone against them because as an exporting nation you don’t want your currency to necessarily be that strong. The Brazilian real, the Indian rupee, the Indonesia rupiah, all of those have been gaining.
Q： 未来12个月，糖业和乙醇业应该注意什么？
Tofpik:好吧，还是要脱欧。我可以看到我们可能在五年后仍然像现在这样谈论它。但随着12月初的选举，这一点应该会有一点波折。
然后你会看到中国的情况——第一阶段，第二阶段——会有一些言辞围绕着这一点。总的来说，我担心的一件事是流动性不足，外汇市场出现断裂。这是既定的。
但我们看到的不是利率而是信贷的可获得性，我认为这将是一个大问题。另外，我们还有美国2020年的选举，从技术分析的角度来看，2020年股市崩盘的可能性很大，届时将对其他市场产生影响。
Q: What are the major currency risk factors European ethanol producers and traders should be aware of?
Tofpik:我认为，如果你从欧盟的角度来看，欧元有长期的下跌趋势。由于过去几周欧元和英镑大幅上扬的情况，欧元最近被掩盖了。
But the thing to watch out for is that there is a big move down not quite to parity, but moving towards the 104, 50, 105 area on the Euro, and it’s a gradual move down. That weakening of the Euro is obviously going to benefit producers in the European market space.
