日本私募股权市场的前景是什么时候 - Covid-19？大流行后未来的增长会有机会，如果是的话，他们会在哪里？Kazushige Kobayashi那Independent Consultant and speaker atSuperReturn Asia Virtual，分享他的见解。
When I wrote the "Is the Japanese buyout market at an inflection point?“article last year, whilst having a positive outlook on the growth of the Japanese market, I was concerned with imbalance of demand and supply of capital. Since then, the same as other countries, the Japanese economy has been greatly damaged by COVID-19 and is still in a very early stage of recovery filled with uncertainty. It might be too early, but I’d like to discuss a couple of points which would indicate future growth of the Japanese PE market.
Succession deals of SMEs
中小企业是日本经济的骨干，但许多中小企业面临着两次在第二次世界大战后的许多人和业主老龄化建立的次要问题。大约。2019年130年买断交易和约。80（60％）此类交易是继承交易（*）。继承交易数量急剧增加。
As we can easily imagine, COVID-19 has hit those companies, especially in consumer, retail, hospitality sectors, very hard and we are seeing more bankruptcies in those sectors this year.
情况仍然非常严重，但现在政府和银行正在为这些公司提供流动性，以帮助他们在危机中幸存下来。在这个过程之后，我会看到更多的体重机会在这个过程之后发挥重要作用，情况变得更加稳定。
Many SMEs continues to have issues with succession, access to capital and transformation of business (including utilization of DX) for sustainability and/or growth - and PE funds are in a very important position to solve those issues. I’m confident investments in this segment would provide very good and stable return for LPs.
One challenge we face is the scarcity of capable GPs. The universe of GPs, especially GPs which focus on smaller deals, is still small. We continue to try to solve this issue with collaborative approach among GPs, LPs, financial institutions and public organizations.
Corporate carve-outs
大约。由于PE渗透到日本商业界，即去年，去年的20名企业雕刻交易正在增加，而这些交易的数量正在增加。
CO.VID-19 has put more pressures on large companies. They are now trying to turnaround the crisis situation, i.e. maintaining operations and supply chains, minimizing loss for this year, but they are also now facing a question – how to adapt themselves in the “post COVID-19 world”. They also have to be mindful of SDGs and pressures from shareholders, including activists.
的管理ment is also keen to support business transformation for these companies. METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry) is introducing a new guideline on business transformation soon.
我希望看到更多对非核心业务的推卸，并且更多的是PE资金。此外，我希望看到大公司与PE资金一起使用的案件增加，以获得人力资源和网络，特别是日本以外的业务。
非日本LPS的机会
与其他国家一样，现在难以前往日本，许多LPS都有义务为持有新的投资，特别是对于新的关系。我希望这种情况在今年晚些时候转过来，更多的LPS有机会以以前那样达到尽职调查。
专注于企业雕刻交易的较大资金将更容易评估，但LPS必须要小心。这个细分仍然非常竞争力 - 更多的GPS和战略买家正在追逐少数交易和价值创造的能力是一个良好回报的关键。此外，由于目标企业往往是全球性的，LPS需要小心地缘政治问题，例如美国和中国之间的紧张关系。
规模较小的基金,专注于交易a very attractive target, but as their size are small and GPs are local and less institutional, LPs have to be more forward-looking and willing to commit small amounts. It’s very important to exchange notes with local Japanese LPs who know local market well.
When the COVID-19 crisis occurred, we compared the situation with the GFC. In Japan, GPs became very cautions and LPs also became very risk-averse after GFC. It took a couple of years to recover from it. Comparing with that, the current situation is much better, and GPs and LPs are not upset - although they are cautious as they should be.
The Japanese PE market has always grown after crises – initially the financial crisis in late 90s and the after GFC. I believe Japanese PE will also overcome the current crisis and will become bigger and more resilient in the long run.
