Between 2015 and 2018, credit and political risk insurance (CPRI) saw a 30% increase in both capacity and tenors. Figures for 2019, on the other hand, show more modest growth in overall CPRI capacity and a small decline in credit capacity. But as James Esdaile, Managing Director, BPL Global, explains, these headline numbers only tell half the story of where supply and demand for CPRI currently stand.
Challenges abounded for the CPRI market in 2018. The UK Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA)’s consultation paper on credit risk mitigation (CP6/18), the loss of some CPRI providers and, of course, Brexit, all presented hurdles for the industry last year. And, according to our latest CPRI市场洞察力report published in February, overall credit capacity even marginally decreased.
面对它，这是一个有点混合的画面。然而，更彻底的分析表明，市场在去年的监管障碍面前表现出恢复力，从其对PRA的CP6 / 18的协调响应，以其对Brexit的准备工作。
What’s more, despite the dip in overall credit capacity, we have detected significant growth across key product lines, as well as new market players and demand and appetite trends – most notably, a shift towards OECD risk. Indeed, there remains plenty of optimism – and plenty of opportunities – within the CPRI market.
新生生长
在非贸易信贷业务的最大风险能力最高令人振奋的增加约15％，加上非支付公共债务人和政治风险线的增加。后两者现在均以每次风险的最大值为32亿美元 - 超过2亿美元的容量从上一年增加。
Last year’s revised Lloyd’s regulations around syndicates' ability to underwrite CPRI have contributed to the growth in capacity for the non-trade business line: Lloyd’s syndicates can now obtain approval in advance to write non-trade risks rather than seeking risk by risk approval as in the past. Importantly, the growth in non-trade capacity also points to the market’s swift response to increased client demand for this product line.
改变需求
非贸易不是过去一年中需求趋势所发生的唯一领域。虽然真实的市场继续从采掘部门（石油，采矿和金属）获得其大部分询问，但它最近能够从运输和电力行业的越来越多的利益 - 以及显着的飞机，运输和可再生能源。
Financial institutions represent the vast majority of CPRI buyers, and we have perceived shifts in what they ask of the market. Our enquiry flow over the second half of 2018 shows that bank demand for longer-term project finance risks has risen significantly, and now represents 13% of all enquiries we receive from those clients.
Moreover, 22% of all our bank enquiries in H2 2018 related to unsecured corporate lending, indicating a demand shift from the sector to cover risks in OECD territories. This is reflective of a wider trend: one in three enquiries that we received during the same period related to OECD risk.
经合组织风险的开放性
Indeed, the movement towards covering OECD risk can be perceived at both ends of the market. In the face of evident and heightened demand for single-situation credit insurance in OECD countries, the market has naturally responded with an increasing receptiveness to covering such risks.
Over the course of 2018, for example, we noted an increase in our exposure to OECD-located risk across our portfolio.
此外，经合组织国家也是在我们投资组合中收集的十大最高价值索赔中的首次出现在三年内。2016年至2018年间，西班牙和德国在这方面排名第六和第七，索赔分别为3200万美元和2700万美元。这是市场上增加了该地区风险的另一个指标。
With such changing demand and risk patterns, this type of responsiveness from the market is critical to ensuring further uptake and development of the CPRI product. As such, 2018 – although tempered by challenges – was a clear testament to the resilience and agility of our market and an encouraging sign of its continued progress in the coming years.
