人口和保护主义，在过去一年中创造了全球贸易的涟漪，已成为强劲的电流。外交政策转变，特别是来自美国，正在继续影响政治风险和信贷。

多边主义正在让位于更多双边经济学，并将个别合作伙伴代替区域集团联系更多的贸易协定。这种转变反映了一个明显的战术方法，而不是战略性的方法。

One of the nations that is eclipsing others in maintaining a strategic viewpoint is China. With its “One Belt, One Road” initiative and establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, China is blazing a path that embraces multilateral trade, which is likely to have benefits for many partners.

2017年早些时候Eurasia Group是领先的政治风险研究和咨询公司，预测政治环境中的更大的不确定性和波动。本集团还建议在亚洲进一步稳定，美国欧洲盟国的削弱和新兴市场的结构改革失败。不幸的是，欧亚亚洲集团的预测出现了现场。不确定性和政治波动是持续的，从年初开始变化。

Below is a brief look at some of the regional challenges. These are compounding the risks for international businesses as they pursue growth and enter contracts with suppliers around the globe.

亚洲：中国’s recent19th Party Congress unveiled the next generation of leadership, which as expected will provide solid support for Xi Jinping’s agenda to make China a global leader. Japan’s re-election of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government has solidified a strong U.S. ally, but Japan’s relationship with China remains in question. Abe has a hawkish security approach even as Japan looks to expand state-supported investments across Southeast Asia. North Korea continues its saber-rattling and is causing no small amount of concern in the region.

欧洲：政治碎片和民族主义正在遍布欧洲，对欧盟施加压力。德国总理安吉拉·默克尔在增加国内政策的不满时赢得了重选。在法国和荷兰，选民通过民粹主义候选人抵制强大的出价，但两次选举都清楚地表明对现状不满。法国总统Emmanuel Macron是一个政治局外人，证明更多的专制比许多人相信。西班牙在动荡中挣扎，因为它努力让加泰罗尼亚脱落。工业区贡献了西班牙国内生产总值的五分之一。与此同时，“布雷克利特”的实施，联合王国从欧盟退出，正在产生进一步的不确定性。

Latin America:Brazil, the region’s largest economy, is improving but has long-term challenges in managing government spending on entitlement programs. Argentina, with a new government, is attracting new investment in the areas of oil and gas, mining and transportation. Colombia is welcoming public and private partnerships in road construction and other infrastructure investments. Venezuela, meanwhile, remains in a very difficult political and economic situation.

中东：火鸡, once one of the most progressive countries in the region, is becoming more isolated, leading to reduced foreign investment and strained relations with its neighbors and the European Union. Egypt remains volatile politically, while Israeli and Palestinian tensions have been overshadowed by other issues. Large oil exporters in the Middle East, led by Saudi Arabia, have been investing in infrastructure and manufacturing as they prepare for prolonged low oil prices. Qatar is in the middle of a political crisis in which its neighbors have cut ties over the Gulf state’s support of terrorist organizations and alliance with Iran.

非洲：南非不久前，撒哈拉地区的增长和稳定的基石继续在经济上奋斗。肯尼亚的争议总统选举，以暴力为标志，正在履行贸易和投资。然而，非洲的其他国家继续吸引对基础设施，可再生能源和运输项目的投资。

政治风险和不确定性继续成为世界经济的常量。只要这些条件存在，将需要管理风险，以便人们，资产和投资可以继续前进。政治风险和信用保险仍然是企业和投资者追求增长机会的重要工具。

Dan Riordan是XL Catlin的全球政治风险和贸易信用保险总裁。在加入XL Catlin之前，他在一家领先的全球保险公司中举行了政治风险，专业和全球企业物业和伤亡保险的各种高级行政角色。他与2013年至2015年担任总统的国际出口信用保险组织国际协会，伯尔尼联盟已与伯尔尼联盟联系。