LNG供过于求，以及温和的冬季和历史高层股票水平将世界各地的天然气价格推向今年早些时候以来的最低水平。
Over the last few weeks, the impact on demand from coronavirus and the collapse in oil prices has seen some gas benchmarks fall even further. The oversupply is hitting producers and could result in project postponements, lower throughput and industry consolidation–这可能会推出未来的价格。
Gas fundamentals across the world are exceptionally weak. Supply has risen substantially over the last year, with output in the US (by far the world’s biggest natural gas producer) alone up 10% at almost 120 bcf/d in 2019, while exports trebled to 12.8 bcf/d – mostly through LNG.
澳大利亚和俄罗斯也看到了LNG出口的重大增加。总体而言，2019年市场上增加了40mn MT的新LNG供应，而今年将在2021年截止日期为10Mn MT / YR进一步的20mn MT / YR（尽管现在的项目延误可以减少这件Capex被削减而预期，但今年的速度将进一步为20mn。
Until mid-2019, rapidly rising supply had been absorbed to a large extent by demand growth. That tailed off last year, and now the hit from the coronavirus pandemic has seen demand fall in some areas, leading to a clear surplus.
如此，中国需求最糟糕的是，迄今为止，工业和石化活动急剧下降，特别是在湖北省。这引出了主要买家，中海油和石油，宣布在一些液化天然气和管道术语递送方面的不可抗力。
到目前为止，目前尚不清楚有多少减少中国需求。早期迹象表明，1月份下降了约1％，但在2月28日th, it was put at 29.65 bcm by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), which is an increase of 3.4%.
这是超过许多人的预期,虽然lower than consumption growth in January 2019, which was 18.1%. Gas output in January rose by 8.4% to 16.66 bcm, while imports – both piped and in LNG form - fell 1.6% to 13.35 bcm. February is likely to see more significant falls, but March could witness a recovery as quarantines and other restrictions are eased.
现在关注欧洲，意大利和西班牙的锁定以及其他领域的限制可能与中国的需求相似，而不是中国的影响。随着病毒在世界各地传播，需求可能落在许多领域，虽然还不清楚。
Gas price benchmarks have been sliding in response. In the US, the NYMEX front-month future was around $1.81/mn Btu at the end of the second week of March (just off record lows seen earlier in the year), while the Henry Hub day-ahead price was also close to record lows at $1.72/mn Btu.
在英国，NBP前一个月，这是对大西洋液化天然气价格的重大影响，为2.85美元/毫升的BTU - 与11月20日的冬季瓦斯为5.72美元/米Btu（尽管已经下降了15％十二月）。
In Continental Europe, the main benchmark at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) was slightly higher at $2.90/mn Btu.
LNG现货价格也受到了重创的，在3月底，美国墨西哥湾沿岸的LNG期货为2.39 / MN BTU，为期2.39 / Mn Btu，为5月份为2.45美元/ Mn Btu。
In Northeast Asia, which traditionally has the world’s highest LNG prices, levels moved below $3.00/mn Btu in February. They then rose slightly before plunging to record lows of $2.50/mn Btu as the coronavirus impact on demand became increasingly apparent.
直到3月的第二周，许多LNG卖家受到在长期供应合同下的原油价格下降的燃气价格下降。但现在原油折叠到30美元/布尔这些液化天然气销售（以及一些俄罗斯管道出口）也将看到夏普价格下跌。
例如，根据S＆P的说法，在原油价格下降后，溢价率为12％的坡度到布伦特原油的溢价跌至大约1.17美元/毫安的BTU至亚洲现货价格。普拉特（虽然大多数合同滞后）。
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Supply under pressure
The low prices are already reducing supply and lifting demand in some areas – helping to balance the market, although equilibrium remains some way off. US sales to Asia are having trouble making money at current prices, which is leading to reduced output at some US export terminals, and there have also been weather-related shut-ins.
Australian LNG exports have been hit as well. For example, in February the state of Queensland, home to the ConocoPhillips-Origin Energy Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) project, Shell’s Queensland Curtis LNG and the Santos-led Gladstone LNG, shipped 1.05mn mt of LNG to China, down over 15% on February 2019.
Even before the full extent of the outbreak became clear, Shell warned that it may have to shut-in liquefaction plants this year.
Looking ahead, analysts are cutting demand outlooks and price forecasts. For example, in early March Rystad Energy cut its forecast for TTF prices to $3.95/mn Btu for 2020, down over $1.50/mn Btu from a forecast of $5.56 it made in January. Its prediction for Asian spot prices dropped to $4.63/mn Btu for 2020, from $6.32 previously.
然而, those assessments did not account for the latest coronavirus news in Europe, or the plunge in oil prices, so lower forecasts can be expected to emerge over the coming days.
The fall in oil (and gas) prices means oil and gas companies are cutting capex, which is leading to the deferral or cancellation of projects. Qatar, for example, has already pushed the FID date for the first phase of its giant planned expansion back into 2021.
由于制造停工和运输瓶颈，冠状病毒大流行也将上游项目面临延迟风险。木麦肯齐估计在2月底，该项目占4BN CF / D气体和1.5Mn B / D的石油有延迟的风险。
Demand creation
There is some upside from the lower prices in the form of higher sales to price sensitive customers. In particular, the latest falls in oil prices could make gas competitive with coal in Japan and South Korea (where most long-term supplies are linked to crude prices), according to Wood Mackenzie, which would encourage coal-to-gas switching in their power sectors.
“In Asia, the fall in oil prices will start to affect the pricing of gas under long-term contracts from late 2020. This could start to have a major impact on the competitiveness of gas in major Asian markets like Japan and South Korea,” said Wood Mackenzie.
In Europe, the spot price drop has already seen an improvement in gas’s competitiveness versus coal. With Summer TTF spot prices below €10/MWh, gas power plants of just 57% efficiency are profitable for peak-load power generation on most days, according to Rystad Energy, and sometimes even 35%-efficiency units may be profitable.
Rystad had expected coal-to-gas switching to increase by 6% in northwest Europe this year, but this could rise even further.
低价格也刺激了印度的需求 - - 清洁空气液化天然气消费量可以为印度的窒息城市提供优先考虑的优先级，但目前目前受到进口和分销基础设施的需求。
然而, two new terminals went online last year, and pipelines are quickly being laid. Russell Hardy, the CEO of leading trader, Vitol, said low LNG prices would help to create demand in India – provided the gas can get to customers.
对冠状病毒的影响的全部影响尚不清楚。但情况是前所未有的，并且抛弃了空中大部分行业的盈利能力和计划。
For the time being, it’s a matter of survival and adaptation. As time passes and the situation clarifies, companies can perhaps begin to plan for the future again, although it may take a while to get used to what could be a very different world.
今年7月加入美国火炬，欧洲会议场所为全球天然气和液化天然气行业。
