正如在八十天的世界各地在世界各地的无与伦比的冒险中突出显示的那样，“一个人可以想象的东西，其他男人可以做到真实。”新鲜的凭借近期英国大选的胜利分析，我们真诚地希望新的一年继续为美国Verne的虔诚祷告队肯定任何一流的地缘政治分析师。

Without further ado, here is our main political risk prediction for the coming year, along with four other teasers that will do much to define the nascent new era we find ourselves in.

Forget the ‘success’ of the December 2019 Phase 1 agreement between the US and China.

This amounts to little more than a truce in what remains an ongoing trade war. Worse still, Washington and Beijing are now in the opening stages of a Cold War for dominance in Asia that will come to define our new era.

While the December 2019 Phase I agreement did cool the 17-month trade war between the world’s two most powerful economies, upon closer inspection it is so much less than meets the eye. The Trump administration put off announced December tariffs and slightly modified older ones, while the regime of Xi Jinping agreed to sharply increase its purchases of American farm products over the next two years.

但不是没有新的关税的大豆about to settle the structural differences brewing between the world’s sole superpower and its only possible near-term peer competitor.

基本原因对于任何单一的政治别人的错而不比两个不可批评的差异的现实。中国，其具有非常不同的国家资本主义模型 - 这是美国发现本身不公平的构造，而不是通过全球贸易规则进行调整 - 这不是为了改变其迄今为止成功的系统，因为美国不喜欢它。

Xi, in continuing to promote his ‘China in 2025’ state-centric economic vision, shows no signs of abandoning the economic model which has pulled 800 million Chinese out of abject poverty and made his proud country a great power once again.

As such, there is no Phase II deal, and the ‘breakthrough’ of December 2019 is merely a truce in what historically amounts to an ongoing economic battle for supremacy between the two powers.

如果北京不达到经济学，美国肯定不会自愿投降在东亚的地缘政治优势。华盛顿和北京有一个根本存在的问题：美国是该地区最大的力量，中国希望成为该地区最大的力量（因为它传统上）。没有多少蜜字，外交技巧或改变主题可以改变这个基本的地标特性事实。

If you accept that the US understandably will not give up its dominant position without a fight — coupled with China’s understandable refusal to radically alter its economic system — you have only one political risk conclusion to reach. The US and China are in the first stages of a Cold War that, more than anything, will shape the coming era we all live in.

以下是我们的其他2020年的2020年地缘政治预测，它将在后续列中的长度滴定。

1. Barring last, best hope French President Emmanuel Macron besting the French street over pension reform and quickly finding an able German interlocutor to at last embark on European-wide economic reform, Europe will continue its downwards geopolitical slide.
2. Post-Brexit the key is not the trade deal with Europe, but whether Boris Johnson can, over his full five-year term, negotiate free trade deals with the Anglosphere (Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the US and India). If he does so, then Brexit will be seen as a historical success. If not, then a failure.
3. 由于民主党人继续犯下政治自我危害（弹劾），并且当他们向托洛茨基左移到问题时 - 从奴隶制的赔偿，绿色的新交易，所有的医疗保险，以及违反非法移民 - 唐纳德特朗普将会被选为美国总统。
4. The North Korean crisis will turn septic again this year, raising the threat of yet more instability in Asia, the seat of most of the world’s future economic growth, as well as much as its future political risk.

但像Philise Fogg和他忠诚的朋友Passepartout一样，我希望我们能够再次在这个来年再次在地球上举行，看到它的美丽和迷恋，以及它的悲惨局限。