Hydrogen is increasingly seen as a critical component in the future net zero energy system. Costs are falling faster than expected and the first green hydrogen schemes are being put together.
The greatest victory for environmentalists (and arguably the planet) over recent years has been the fall in costs of solar and wind energy, driven in its initial stages by subsidy systems around the world.
现在，这些廉价的可再生能源通常可以用碳氢化合物的合理商业基础竞争，许多国家的政策制定者正在考虑将注意力重定向到零碳系统所需的其他关键要素，该市场尚未支持。
These areas include decarbonising heating systems and industrial energy consumption, as well as providing low carbon power when solar and wind are not available.
The European Commission’s Green Deal strongly promotes green hydrogen (produced using electrolysis and renewable power) for use as an energy store and fuel for power backup (it can be used to fuel CCGTs). The commission is also pushing it in vehicles (especially larger ones, where electricity is less efficient), industrial processes and heating (initially mixed into the existing gas grid to reduce carbon intensity).
在英国，政府建议的气候变化委员会也指向氢作为这些领域的关键贡献者 - 从甲烷重整和碳捕获和储存（CCS）结合的绿色氢和氢气，这是称为蓝氢。
蓝色氢气（至少在纸上）目前按比例更便宜，并且可以代表正确基础设施到位的大规模生产的最佳短期选择。
降低成本
The main problem for green hydrogen is the cost of production, which has been falling but has not yet reached commercial levels in most areas. Most analysts expect that increased scale and technological improvements will reduce this over time, in the same way that wind and solar costs have fallen.
欧盟委员会预计所需补贴和整体投资都需要相对谦虚。在其氢路线图报告中，估计在绿色氢工业的扩展过程中，在2030年，在其“雄心勃勃的”情景（其中氢气发育最广泛）中，欧盟需要每年投资80亿欧元。这不到欧洲能源和汽车资产总投资总量的5％。
绿色氢成本的两个组件capital outlay on the electrolyser and the cost of power. Falling renewable prices (last year’s Portuguese solar auctions awarded at bids as low as $16/MWh, and the UK saw £39-41/MWh in recent offshore wind CfD awards), make hydrogen production much cheaper.
Power costs can be brought down further by using power that is currently curtailed (surplus renewable power – either free or negatively priced), which can happen when supply outpaces demand. That curtailed renewable energy could instead be stored in the form of hydrogen.
However, such power will never be available all the time and so non-surplus supply must also be used to ensure a high utilisation rate of electrolysers (most plans so far have a dedicated renewable generating facility).
The costs of electrolysers are also falling, with levels down to $1,200/kW from about $1,750/kW in 2014. McKinsey estimates that with each doubling of capacity, the cost of the equipment should fall by between 9 and 13%, and a number of manufacturers (including Nel, ITM Power and Hydrogenics) have plans for gigawatt-scale factories.
Mott MacDonald预测成本可能落到2030-2035到30ct / kg，但在中期中，它更有可能降至1 / kg（相当于45美元/ bl油）。这是在任何经销成本之前，由于其低能量强度和易用性（使其易于泄漏）昂贵。
Recently costs have been coming down faster than expected. In February, Europe’s Hydrogen Council forecast that "the cost of hydrogen solutions will fall sharply within the next decade – and sooner than previously expected. As scale-up of hydrogen production, distribution, equipment and component manufacturing continues, cost is projected to decrease by up to 50% by 2030 for a wide range of applications, making hydrogen competitive with other low-carbon alternatives and, in some cases, even conventional options."
Green hydrogen upstream: taking the plunge
Some countries are now moving forward with the first steps to develop green hydrogen output. In late 2019, Denmark said it was considering redirecting subsidies to less mature green technologies, such as green hydrogen, and away from solar and wind, which are increasingly being priced at near market levels avoiding the need for subsidy.
The Danish government’s statement was followed by an announcement from state-owned Ørsted (one time Danish state oil and gas company and now the world’s biggest wind generator), that it plans to invest in pilot projects that will use wind power and other renewable energy sources to make hydrogen fuel.
Ørsted’s CEO, Henrik Poulsen, said this green hydrogen could be used to store energy and create a renewable power source: “We are ready to invest in pilot projects and are working on finding good pilot projects,” he said, adding that green hydrogen was a “strategic extension of both offshore and onshore wind”, although it is still a technology in its early stages. Ørsted might expect to benefit from the redirection of subsidies to this area, and secured funding for one project in December1.
Then in January, Germany’s new government announced it was also considering offshore wind exclusively for hydrogen production, along with another 33 measures in a 21-page draft Hydrogen Strategy. This will have an initial target of producing 20% of Germany’s hydrogen from domestic renewable power by 2030.
德国的海上风力较少，而不是英国或丹麦，也面临着由于规划问题而落下的陆上风力扩张，这意味着它设想从拥有更丰富的可再生能源或甲烷/ CCS的国家进口其氢的重要部分（尽管德国非常有利于蓝色的绿色氢）。
The Netherlands is also an early mover in hydrogen development. Last year, Dutch gas company Gasunie and grid operator TenneT produced their first 2050 zero-carbon energy plan (required to meet Dutch carbon reduction commitments), which points to a wholesale adoption of hydrogen from surplus renewables in heating and power as the optimum (and by far the cheapest) means of achieving the goal. The two companies, along with grid operator Thyssengas, are also involved in similar plans in Germany.
UK blues
In the UK, the most advanced and extensive plans are for blue hydrogen, aided by the availability of a number of depleted offshore oil and gas fields for CO2 storage. Oil and gas companies are keen on blue hydrogen as it provides a potential future market for methane, and makes use of existing infrastructure, both onshore and offshore.
英国的计划项目包括HYNET2in the northwest and another on Humberside, that would supply large industrial clients and millions of residential customers through the gas grid. These plans are currently cheaper than green hydrogen, but unproven and with less potential for further cost reduction, along with higher residual emissions.
“可再生氢目前比来自气体或煤产生的氢更昂贵。因此，重要的是扩大[电解器]技术并使其更有效，使得我们能够以价格竞争的价格竞争化石的替代品的价格，“AndersNordstrøm说ØRsted氢气活动副总裁兼负责人。
It is unclear so far whether the new UK government will follow the CCC’s advice and push ahead with hydrogen, and less clear still whether any of the blue hydrogen schemes will get its backing.
The government must do something to meet the UK’s ambitious 2050 zero-carbon target but has traditionally tried to remain technology-neutral and use some form of market mechanism to achieve the end-goal – although it appears industrial strategy may be more important under the new Johnson administration.
Longer term, as electrolyser (and renewable power) costs fall further, green hydrogen projects are expected to prove more attractive than the alternatives. This will be particularly true of electrolysers located where renewable power costs are low – including the North Sea, but also desert areas with cheap solar power.
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